World data · 194 countries · updated October 2026

Which countries will have more children in 2040 — and which will have far fewer

Projected change in the under-15 population of 194 countries between now and 2040, ranked from fastest growth to steepest decline.

The short answer

DR Congo leads the 194 countries ranked here on under-15 population change to 2040 at +41%, followed by Central African Republic at +37% and Angola at +35%. The median country is Nicaragua at −6%.

#1 +41% DR Congo Sub-Saharan Africa #2 +37% Central African Republic Sub-Saharan Africa #3 +35% Angola Sub-Saharan Africa Median −6% Nicaragua The middle of 194

What this measures

The projected percentage change in the population aged 0–14 between today and 2040, derived from UN World Population Prospects.

What it does not

It is a projection built on fertility assumptions. Fertility has recently fallen faster than projected in many countries, so the declines here may be understated rather than overstated.

The bottom of the table

South Korea −38%

Marshall Islands −37%

Belarus −35%

Albania −34%

Moldova −32%

Bars are scaled across the full observed range (−38% to +41%), not to 100%, so the real spread is visible.

How the values are spread

Where the 194 countries fall

The range from −38% to +41% is split into 10 equal bands, and each bar counts the countries in one band.

Number of countries in each band of under-15 population change to 2040
Band	Countries	Including
−38.0% to −30.1%	6	Latvia, Moldova, Albania and 3 more
−30.1% to −22.2%	14	St Vincent and the Grenadines, Tunisia, Brazil and 11 more
−22.2% to −14.3%	38	Iran, Bangladesh, North Korea and 35 more
−14.3% to −6.4%	37	Germany, Malaysia, France and 34 more
−6.4% to +1.5%	34	Honduras, Portugal, Luxembourg and 31 more
+1.5% to +9.4%	20	Burkina Faso, Monaco, Kenya and 17 more
+9.4% to +17.3%	16	South Sudan, Yemen, São Tomé and Príncipe and 13 more
+17.3% to +25.2%	16	Mauritania, Cameroon, Zambia and 13 more
+25.2% to +33.1%	9	Tanzania, United Arab Emirates, Chad and 6 more
+33.1% to +41.0%	4	DR Congo, Central African Republic, Angola and 1 more

How this is built: each band is one tenth of the gap between the lowest and highest value; a country is counted in the band its value falls in, and the top band includes the highest value. Countries with no comparable figure are left out. Chart drawn with Apache ECharts.

The full ranking

All 194 countries

Click any column heading to re-sort. Type to filter, or pick a region. Every country name links to its full profile.

194 countries shown

Which countries will have more children in 2040 — and which will have far fewer, ranked. Column headings re-sort the table.
Rank	Country	Under-15 population change to 2040	Region	Gen Alpha
#1	DR Congo	+41%	Sub-Saharan Africa	44m
#2	Central African Republic	+37%	Sub-Saharan Africa	3m
#3	Angola	+35%	Sub-Saharan Africa	15m
#4	Nigeria	+34%	Sub-Saharan Africa	95m
#5	Tanzania	+33%	Sub-Saharan Africa	28m
#6	United Arab Emirates	+33%	Middle East & North Africa	2m
#7	Chad	+32%	Sub-Saharan Africa	10m
#8	Mozambique	+31%	Sub-Saharan Africa	14m
#9	Syria	+31%	Middle East & North Africa	8m
#10	Uganda	+30%	Sub-Saharan Africa	20m
#11	Somalia	+30%	Sub-Saharan Africa	10m
#12	Qatar	+30%	Middle East & North Africa	476k
#13	Mali	+29%	Sub-Saharan Africa	12m
#14	Mauritania	+25%	Sub-Saharan Africa	2m
#15	Cameroon	+24%	Sub-Saharan Africa	12m
#16	Zambia	+23%	Sub-Saharan Africa	9m
#17	Republic of the Congo	+23%	Sub-Saharan Africa	3m
#18	Sudan	+22%	Sub-Saharan Africa	19m
#19	Côte d'Ivoire	+22%	Sub-Saharan Africa	12m
#20	Equatorial Guinea	+21%	Sub-Saharan Africa	736k
#21	Senegal	+20%	Sub-Saharan Africa	7m
#22	Eritrea	+20%	Sub-Saharan Africa	1m
#23	Madagascar	+19%	Sub-Saharan Africa	13m
#24	Malawi	+19%	Sub-Saharan Africa	9m
#25	Togo	+19%	Sub-Saharan Africa	4m
#26	Ethiopia	+18%	Sub-Saharan Africa	48m
#27	Benin	+18%	Sub-Saharan Africa	6m
#28	Afghanistan	+18%	Middle East & North Africa	17m
#29	Gibraltar	+18%	Europe & Central Asia	7k
#30	South Sudan	+17%	Sub-Saharan Africa	5m
#31	Yemen	+17%	Middle East & North Africa	18m
#32	São Tomé and Príncipe	+16%	Sub-Saharan Africa	92k
#33	Iraq	+16%	Middle East & North Africa	16m
#34	Rwanda	+15%	Sub-Saharan Africa	6m
#35	Liberia	+14%	Sub-Saharan Africa	2m
#36	Gabon	+14%	Sub-Saharan Africa	959k
#37	Pakistan	+14%	South Asia	80m
#38	Ghana	+12%	Sub-Saharan Africa	12m
#39	Guinea	+12%	Sub-Saharan Africa	6m
#40	Kuwait	+12%	Middle East & North Africa	917k
#41	Guinea-Bissau	+11%	Sub-Saharan Africa	881k
#42	Comoros	+11%	Sub-Saharan Africa	331k
#43	Bahrain	+11%	Middle East & North Africa	309k
#44	Sint Maarten	+11%	Latin America	7k
#45	Zimbabwe	+10%	Sub-Saharan Africa	7m
#46	Burkina Faso	+9%	Sub-Saharan Africa	10m
#47	Monaco	+9%	Europe & Central Asia	5k
#48	Kenya	+8%	Sub-Saharan Africa	19m
#49	Sierra Leone	+8%	Sub-Saharan Africa	3m
#50	Uzbekistan	+8%	Europe & Central Asia	12m
#51	Israel	+7%	Middle East & North Africa	3m
#52	Oman	+7%	Middle East & North Africa	1m
#53	Cayman Islands	+7%	Latin America	12k
#54	Gambia	+6%	Sub-Saharan Africa	1m
#55	Egypt	+6%	Middle East & North Africa	34m
#56	Saudi Arabia	+4%	Middle East & North Africa	9m
#57	Jordan	+4%	Middle East & North Africa	4m
#58	Palestine	+4%	Middle East & North Africa	2m
#59	Djibouti	+4%	Middle East & North Africa	345k
#60	Singapore	+4%	East Asia & Pacific	690k
#61	Tajikistan	+4%	Europe & Central Asia	4m
#62	Namibia	+3%	Sub-Saharan Africa	1m
#63	Australia	+2%	Oceania	5m
#64	Kiribati	+2%	Oceania	48k
#65	Liechtenstein	+2%	Europe & Central Asia	6k
#66	Honduras	+1%	Latin America	3m
#67	Portugal	+0%	Europe & Central Asia	1m
#68	Luxembourg	+0%	Europe & Central Asia	108k
#69	Nauru	−1%	Oceania	5k
#70	South Africa	−2%	Sub-Saharan Africa	17m
#71	Philippines	−2%	East Asia & Pacific	32m
#72	New Zealand	−2%	Oceania	1m
#73	Samoa	−2%	Oceania	84k
#74	Kazakhstan	−2%	Europe & Central Asia	6m
#75	Kyrgyzstan	−2%	Europe & Central Asia	2m
#76	Denmark	−2%	Europe & Central Asia	937k
#77	Canada	−2%	North America	6m
#78	Sweden	−3%	Europe & Central Asia	2m
#79	Haiti	−3%	Latin America	4m
#80	Lesotho	−4%	Sub-Saharan Africa	815k
#81	Lebanon	−4%	Middle East & North Africa	2m
#82	Timor-Leste	−4%	East Asia & Pacific	476k
#83	Norway	−4%	Europe & Central Asia	900k
#84	United States	−4%	North America	62m
#85	Guatemala	−4%	Latin America	6m
#86	Suriname	−4%	Latin America	163k
#87	Turks and Caicos Islands	−4%	Latin America	8k
#88	Eswatini	−5%	Sub-Saharan Africa	419k
#89	Seychelles	−5%	Sub-Saharan Africa	27k
#90	Micronesia	−5%	Oceania	36k
#91	Paraguay	−5%	Latin America	2m
#92	Panama	−5%	Latin America	1m
#93	Laos	−6%	East Asia & Pacific	2m
#94	Netherlands	−6%	Europe & Central Asia	3m
#95	Ireland	−6%	Europe & Central Asia	1m
#96	Andorra	−6%	Europe & Central Asia	10k
#97	Bolivia	−6%	Latin America	3m
#98	Nicaragua	−6%	Latin America	2m
#99	Belize	−6%	Latin America	113k
#100	Germany	−7%	Europe & Central Asia	12m
#101	Malaysia	−8%	East Asia & Pacific	8m
#102	France	−8%	Europe & Central Asia	12m
#103	San Marino	−8%	Europe & Central Asia	4k
#104	Antigua and Barbuda	−8%	Latin America	17k
#105	Libya	−9%	Middle East & North Africa	2m
#106	Indonesia	−9%	East Asia & Pacific	68m
#107	United Kingdom	−9%	Europe & Central Asia	12m
#108	Iceland	−9%	Europe & Central Asia	70k
#109	Guyana	−9%	Latin America	243k
#110	Bahamas	−9%	Latin America	71k
#111	Morocco	−10%	Middle East & North Africa	10m
#112	Myanmar	−10%	East Asia & Pacific	13m
#113	Switzerland	−10%	Europe & Central Asia	1m
#114	Ecuador	−10%	Latin America	4m
#115	Barbados	−10%	Latin America	48k
#116	Hungary	−11%	Europe & Central Asia	1m
#117	Cyprus	−11%	Europe & Central Asia	222k
#118	Peru	−11%	Latin America	8m
#119	Dominican Republic	−11%	Latin America	3m
#120	Turkey	−12%	Middle East & North Africa	19m
#121	Nepal	−12%	South Asia	8m
#122	Vietnam	−12%	East Asia & Pacific	23m
#123	Brunei	−12%	East Asia & Pacific	97k
#124	Belgium	−12%	Europe & Central Asia	2m
#125	Turkmenistan	−12%	Europe & Central Asia	2m
#126	Venezuela	−12%	Latin America	7m
#127	Aruba	−12%	Latin America	18k
#128	India	−13%	South Asia	327m
#129	Tonga	−13%	Oceania	36k
#130	Azerbaijan	−13%	Europe & Central Asia	2m
#131	Finland	−13%	Europe & Central Asia	806k
#132	British Virgin Islands	−13%	Latin America	6k
#133	Palau	−14%	Oceania	3k
#134	Spain	−14%	Europe & Central Asia	6m
#135	Mexico	−14%	North America	31m
#136	Argentina	−14%	Latin America	11m
#137	Iran	−15%	Middle East & North Africa	18m
#138	Bangladesh	−15%	South Asia	44m
#139	North Korea	−15%	East Asia & Pacific	5m
#140	Mongolia	−15%	East Asia & Pacific	1m
#141	Croatia	−15%	Europe & Central Asia	524k
#142	Slovenia	−15%	Europe & Central Asia	306k
#143	El Salvador	−15%	Latin America	2m
#144	St Lucia	−15%	Latin America	31k
#145	Dominica	−15%	Latin America	12k
#146	Russia	−16%	Europe & Central Asia	26m
#147	Romania	−16%	Europe & Central Asia	3m
#148	Austria	−16%	Europe & Central Asia	1m
#149	Bulgaria	−16%	Europe & Central Asia	960k
#150	Bermuda	−16%	North America	9k
#151	Mauritius	−17%	Sub-Saharan Africa	184k
#152	Greece	−17%	Europe & Central Asia	1m
#153	Serbia	−17%	Europe & Central Asia	947k
#154	Bosnia and Herzegovina	−17%	Europe & Central Asia	400k
#155	Algeria	−18%	Middle East & North Africa	14m
#156	Italy	−18%	Europe & Central Asia	7m
#157	Czechia	−18%	Europe & Central Asia	2m
#158	St Kitts and Nevis	−18%	Latin America	9k
#159	Malta	−19%	Middle East & North Africa	71k
#160	Poland	−19%	Europe & Central Asia	6m
#161	Uruguay	−19%	Latin America	605k
#162	Sri Lanka	−20%	South Asia	4m
#163	Tuvalu	−20%	Oceania	3k
#164	Ukraine	−20%	Europe & Central Asia	6m
#165	Trinidad and Tobago	−20%	Latin America	265k
#166	Curaçao	−20%	Latin America	27k
#167	Grenada	−20%	Latin America	22k
#168	Slovakia	−21%	Europe & Central Asia	849k
#169	Montenegro	−21%	Europe & Central Asia	112k
#170	Costa Rica	−21%	Latin America	947k
#171	Japan	−22%	East Asia & Pacific	14m
#172	Georgia	−22%	Europe & Central Asia	780k
#173	Colombia	−22%	Latin America	11m
#174	Cuba	−22%	Latin America	2m
#175	St Vincent and the Grenadines	−23%	Latin America	21k
#176	Tunisia	−24%	Middle East & North Africa	3m
#177	Brazil	−24%	Latin America	44m
#178	Jamaica	−24%	Latin America	518k
#179	Chile	−25%	Latin America	4m
#180	Maldives	−26%	South Asia	101k
#181	Thailand	−26%	East Asia & Pacific	11m
#182	Estonia	−26%	Europe & Central Asia	203k
#183	Armenia	−27%	Europe & Central Asia	557k
#184	North Macedonia	−27%	Europe & Central Asia	298k
#185	Puerto Rico	−27%	Latin America	362k
#186	Cape Verde	−28%	Sub-Saharan Africa	131k
#187	Lithuania	−29%	Europe & Central Asia	406k
#188	China	−30%	East Asia & Pacific	230m
#189	Latvia	−31%	Europe & Central Asia	279k
#190	Moldova	−32%	Europe & Central Asia	578k
#191	Albania	−34%	Europe & Central Asia	457k
#192	Belarus	−35%	Europe & Central Asia	1m
#193	Marshall Islands	−37%	Oceania	12k
#194	South Korea	−38%	East Asia & Pacific	6m

Reading the table

This is the table that turns demography into planning, and it splits the world cleanly in two.

Growing: DR Congo (+41%), Angola (+35%), Nigeria (+34%), Tanzania (+33%), Mozambique (+31%). These countries need to build schools faster than they are currently building them, for fifteen consecutive years.

Shrinking: South Korea (−38%), China (−30%), Thailand (−26%), Chile (−25%), Brazil (−24%). These are school-closure numbers before they are anything else. A 30% fall in the under-15 population is a 30% fall in reception intake, arriving one year group at a time, in a system with fixed buildings and a workforce that takes five years to train.

Brazil is the one that should worry economists most. It fell below replacement fertility without first reaching high income — the sequence that produced Japan's and Korea's problems, but starting from a much weaker fiscal position.

Only two countries here grow through migration rather than births: Australia (+2%) and, roughly flat, Canada.

Run the numbers yourself

Tools that use this data

School-Age Population Forecast

How many children will be of school age in any year, globally or nationally.

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Reception and kindergarten intake projected forward from today's birth numbers.

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Frequently asked

Which countries will have the most children in 2040?

In growth terms, DR Congo (+41%), Angola (+35%) and Nigeria (+34%) have the fastest-growing child populations of the countries profiled.

Which country will lose the most children?

South Korea, with the under-15 population projected to fall by about 38% by 2040, followed by China at about 30%.

What does a falling child population mean in practice?

School closures and teacher surpluses first, then a shrinking workforce and rising dependency ratios about twenty years later.

Can immigration offset a falling birth rate?

Partly, and Australia and Canada are the clearest examples on this list — both hold their child populations roughly flat despite low fertility. It changes the composition of the cohort rather than its cause.

How many countries are in this table?

This table ranks 194 countries with a comparable figure, out of the 194 countries profiled on AlphaBetaMinds. The countries in this table hold about 98% of the world population.

Can I reuse this data?

Yes, free of charge and commercially, with a credit to AlphaBetaMinds and a link to this page. The full dataset is also available as plain text at https://alphabetaminds.com/llms-countries.txt.

Other data tables

Generation Alpha population Generation Alpha share of population Projected Generation Beta births Under-15 population share Total fertility rate Median age Births per day School starting age Compulsory years of schooling Secondary school completion Daily screen time, ages 8–12 Internet use Cost of raising a child to 18 Life expectancy at birth Urban population share Youth dependency ratio

Cite this table

AlphaBetaMinds (2026). Which countries will have more children in 2040 — and which will have far fewer. Retrieved from https://alphabetaminds.com/data/child-population-change-2040-by-country

Download the full dataset (CSV)

Sources: UN World Population Prospects, World Bank Open Data, UNESCO Institute for Statistics, ITU. Figures are 2025–2026 estimates. Method on our methodology page.