School Place Demand Forecast
Project a school or an area's intake forward from the local birth trend, and see the year surplus places turn into a funding problem rather than a spare classroom.
An intake of 60 falling at 1.5% a year is about 54 children after seven years — a fifth of a class gone, which is enough to strand a school with funded places it cannot fill but fixed costs it still has to pay.
School Place Demand Forecast
Frequently asked
Why does a small fall matter?
Because school funding is largely per pupil while costs are largely fixed. A 10% fall in intake does not remove 10% of the building, the heating or the leadership team.
Where does the birth trend come from?
Local birth registrations, usually published by the national statistics office. A child starting school this year was born four to six years ago, so the intake is already determined — this only projects what is already in the pipeline.
Does this apply outside the UK?
Yes. Most high-income countries entered a sustained birth decline after 2015 and the arithmetic is the same everywhere; only the class size and funding model change.
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