UK Fertility Rate 2025: Record Lows in England, Wales and Scotland
England and Wales fell to a provisional 1.39 children per woman in 2025 and Scotland to 1.23, both record lows. The UK figures nation by nation.
The fertility rate in England and Wales fell to a provisional 1.39 children per woman in 2025, from 1.41 in 2024, the lowest since records began. There were 585,396 live births, the fewest since 1977. Scotland's rate fell to 1.23, also a record low, with 45,067 births, the fewest since 1855. Northern Ireland has the highest rate in the UK, 1.64 in 2023, the latest published.
For three years running, the headline has been the same: Britain's fertility rate has hit another record low. The 2025 figures continued the pattern.
There is no single UK fertility rate published for 2025. Each nation has its own statistics office and its own release date, so this page brings the latest official figures together.
The figures, nation by nation
| Nation | Latest year | Fertility rate | Births | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England and Wales | 2025 | 1.39 (provisional) | 585,396 | ONS, 27 May 2026 |
| Scotland | 2025 | 1.23 | 45,067 | NRS, 25 August 2026 |
| Northern Ireland | 2023 (rate), 2024 (births) | 1.64 | 19,416 (2024) | NISRA, via NI Assembly Research |
The fertility rate is the average number of children a woman would have if she experienced this year's birth rates at every age. A population that does not rely on migration needs about 2.1 to replace itself. Every UK nation is far below that.
England and Wales: 1.39 in 2025
The Office for National Statistics published its first 2025 figures on 27 May 2026:
- 585,396 live births, down 1.6% from 594,677 in 2024 and the fewest since 1977.
- A provisional fertility rate of 1.39, down from 1.41 in 2024. The ONS will publish the final rate later in 2026.
- Mothers' average age, standardised for the age structure of the population, rose slightly to 31.1, and fathers' to 34.0. In 1975 the figures were 26.4 and 29.5.
- 40.2% of births had one or both parents born outside the UK, up from 39.5%.
For context, the 2023 rate of 1.44 was already the lowest since records began in 1938. The 2025 figure is the third record low in a row.
Scotland: 1.23, the lowest in the UK
National Records of Scotland published its 2025 figures on 25 August 2026:
- 45,067 live births, 696 fewer than in 2024. That is the lowest annual total since records began in 1855, and the third record low in a row.
- A fertility rate of 1.23, down from 1.24 in 2024 and the lowest since NRS's published series began in 1951.
Northern Ireland: the highest, but falling too
Northern Ireland publishes on a different timetable. Its latest published fertility rate is 1.64 for 2023, the highest in the UK but still well below replacement.
Births have fallen there too, from 34,345 in 1964 to 19,416 in 2024. In 2024 births exceeded deaths by only 1,366 (19,416 against 18,050), and the gap between the two is closing. The Northern Ireland Assembly's research service notes that the fall would have been steeper without births to mothers born outside the UK and Ireland.
Why the UN shows a different number
If you look up the United Kingdom on this site, or anywhere that uses UN data, you will see a higher figure. The UN's World Population Prospects puts the UK's 2023 fertility rate at 1.56. The national offices' own figure for England and Wales that year was 1.44.
They are different measurements. The national offices count births actually registered in each nation. The UN publishes a model-based estimate for the UK as a whole, built to be comparable across every country in the world. For the UK specifically, the national figures are the more direct measure. For comparing the UK with other countries, the UN series is the consistent one. Our UK country page shows the UN series back to 1950, and three different numbers are all called the birth rate explains why figures like these so often disagree.
What is behind the fall
The ONS figures point to one pattern clearly: later parenthood. The average mother is now about five years older than in 1975. And in 2023 the ONS reported fertility rates falling in almost every age group, so the drop is not simply births being postponed to older ages.
Beyond that, the reasons are debated: housing costs, childcare costs, insecure work and changing preferences all have evidence behind them. None explains the whole pattern on its own. Our article on why the birth rate is falling goes through what the data supports and what is still guesswork.
What it means for Generation Beta
Generation Beta, born from 2025, is arriving into the smallest birth cohorts Britain has recorded in decades. Fewer births now means smaller primary school intakes from about 2029 or 2030, a theme we cover in falling school rolls.
The honest summary
England and Wales recorded a provisional fertility rate of 1.39 in 2025 and Scotland 1.23. Both are record lows, and births in both fell to their lowest levels in decades. Northern Ireland remains the highest at 1.64 in 2023, but its births are falling too. The UN's higher figure for the UK is a modelled international estimate. For what is actually happening in each nation, the national statistics are the direct count.
Sources
- Office for National Statistics (27 May 2026). Births in England and Wales: 2025.
- Office for National Statistics (28 October 2024). Births in England and Wales: 2023.
- National Records of Scotland (25 August 2026). Adoptions, Births, Deaths, Marriages and Civil Partnerships in Scotland, 2025.
- Northern Ireland Assembly Research and Information Service (10 September 2026). Demographic profile of Northern Ireland 2026.
- United Nations, World Population Prospects 2024, via Our World in Data.