Statistics · checked October 2026
School Closure and Falling Rolls Statistics (2026)
Which countries are losing pupils, how fast, and what that does to schools.
The under-15 population is projected to fall by 38% in South Korea, 30% in China and 22% in Japan by 2040 — figures that translate directly into reception intake and, eventually, school closures.
| Statistic | Figure | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Korea, under-15 change to 2040 | −38% | 2040 projection | UN WPP |
| China | −30% | 2040 projection | UN WPP |
| Thailand | −26% | 2040 projection | UN WPP |
| Chile | −25% | 2040 projection | UN WPP |
| Brazil | −24% | 2040 projection | UN WPP |
| Japan | −22% | 2040 projection | UN WPP |
| United Kingdom | −9% | 2040 projection | UN WPP |
| United States | −4% | 2040 projection | UN WPP |
| Australia | +2%, through migration | 2040 projection | UN WPP |
| Nigeria | +34% | 2040 projection | UN WPP |
| DR Congo | +41% | 2040 projection | UN WPP |
| Lead time on reception intake | 4–7 years — every pupil is already born | 2026 | Derived |
| Typical teacher attrition | ~8% a year regardless of cohort size | 2026 | National data |
The most predictable forecast in public policy
Every child who will start school in five years has already been born. The only uncertainty is migration.
A falling cohort rarely produces smaller classes in practice; it produces school closures, because a half-empty building costs the same to heat as a full one. And it does not remove the recruitment problem — attrition runs at roughly 8% a year whatever the cohort does.
Frequently asked
Which country will lose the most school pupils?
South Korea, with the under-15 population projected to fall about 38% by 2040.
Do falling rolls mean smaller classes?
Rarely. They usually mean school closures and consolidation, because building costs do not fall with pupil numbers.
How far ahead can school intake be forecast?
Four to seven years with near certainty, because every child who will start school in that window is already born.
AlphaBetaMinds (2026). School Closure and Falling Rolls Statistics. Retrieved from https://alphabetaminds.com/statistics/school-closure-statistics